Historical lesson:-> See text in diagram
STI Status as of 27 Aug 2013
If one is in the market...
The short term losing probability is : 66.45%
The mid term losing probability is : 66.53%
The long term losing probability is : 63.26%
Why hold on to the stocks when the overall probability of winning is so much lower than losing?
The short term losing probability is : 66.45%
The mid term losing probability is : 66.53%
The long term losing probability is : 63.26%
Why hold on to the stocks when the overall probability of winning is so much lower than losing?
"The world is a dangerous place to live;
not because of the people who are evil,
but because of the people who don't
do anything about it."
- Albert Einstein
Microsoft Tough Competitor - Kingsoft WPS Office
If you are having a
new computer or android portable.... and need a
office.
You may try out the
latest free version of Kingsoft WPS office.
In the android
platform, I can open any MS office files, PDF, etc, and even keep the animation
in PowerPoint file!
This China softwae company recently started their international language website... and gaining market. Would definitely cut into the market share of Microsoft cash cow - the MS Office.
Just google for "Kingsoft WPS Office"....
Case Study on Pattern.... Saucer
While preparing a course material, come across TAN forming the pattern.
Keep it here and will come back and see later on.....
Is Market Efficient? ^STI vs EWS
Below the charts showing the ^STI (Straits TIme Index) and EWS (iShares Singapore Index ETF) and the SGDUSD (Singapore Dollar and US Dollor conversion rate).
One can see that there is a little difference, but obvious, between these two ^STI and EWS. This is mainly due to the components in EWS is Singapore Stocks and need to convert to USD when it calculates the intrinsic values of ETF (EWS).
.
But, when plotting the Currency chart, it shows that it has a significant moved on 10 Jul 2013 but not reflected on the EWS.
This was due to the Significant moved of SGSUSD happened ONLY AFTER the US market was closed, therefore, the changed of currency can only be reflected on the EWS the next day.
.
This would also help in explain the divergence between the Foreign ETFs' price and their BBC Indicators.
.
EWS and BBC indicator. Notice the Divergence.
^STI and BBC indicator. - No Divergence.
.
Also note that there is a slight difference between the BBC Indicator in EWS and ^STI, for the portfolio managers can change slightly on the holding weightage dnd even the holding for foreign country stocks. BUT, ETF TRACK VERY EFFICIENTLY to the US market index, such as SPY to S&P500, etc.
The conclusion is that the ETF value track very efficiently to its sum of components value.
Question for ponder:
For any company, there is a fix amount of shares when the company went public. And, what about ETFs??? For example, if a sector ETF is hot, more and more public want to have own that sector ETF and less and less people willing to sell, how is the fund manager going to do? This is a question worth your research and understanding!
Bless You
KH Tang
Point and Figure Chart on STI (14 Jun 2013)
-------------------------------------Chart added on 13 Nov 2013 ------------------------------------
“It always was my sitting, that made the money.” - Jesse Livermore
If you are trading for a while and read some trading books. You probably read this statement before:
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” - Jesse Livermore
Now.
Reading it is one thing, understanding it is one thing, doing it is yet another thing!
Let me explain…
Years ago, I read this and also read about trend trading, I thought – he meant “sit and let the profit run.... don’t take profit too soon”.
Years later I then understood... What he meant by sitting is to wait (in cash) for good opportunity and set up, not because I AM a trader than I must trade frequently.
For example:
Attached Chart is on Coal Miner (KOL).
Put it in the watch list... then sit and wait,... wait until the accumulation phase is over, then join the mark up phase.
The longer it get to wait, the higher it would go (Wyckoff Method– Law of cause and effect).
And, of course, meanwhile, participate in something else if there is other good set up.
Bless You
KH Tang
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” - Jesse Livermore
Now.
Reading it is one thing, understanding it is one thing, doing it is yet another thing!
Let me explain…
Years ago, I read this and also read about trend trading, I thought – he meant “sit and let the profit run.... don’t take profit too soon”.
Years later I then understood... What he meant by sitting is to wait (in cash) for good opportunity and set up, not because I AM a trader than I must trade frequently.
For example:
Attached Chart is on Coal Miner (KOL).
Put it in the watch list... then sit and wait,... wait until the accumulation phase is over, then join the mark up phase.
The longer it get to wait, the higher it would go (Wyckoff Method– Law of cause and effect).
And, of course, meanwhile, participate in something else if there is other good set up.
Bless You
KH Tang
